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Add privacy-safe demand forecasting case study

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Synthetic monthly SKU/region demand notebook comparing a trimmed-mean
baseline against gradient boosting, with a gated TimesFM build-vs-buy
comparison. Includes rolling-origin validation, executive narrative,
architecture diagram, one-page PDF, and LinkedIn draft.

No company data, credentials, or private implementation details.

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>
This commit is contained in:
Gabriel Pereira
2026-09-11 16:37:33 -03:00
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<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<title>Demand Forecasting Case Study</title>
<style>
@page { size: A4; margin: 14mm; }
body { color: #102a43; font: 10.5pt Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.35; margin: 0; }
h1 { color: #0b4f71; font-size: 24pt; margin: 0 0 4pt; }
h2 { color: #0b4f71; font-size: 13pt; margin: 10pt 0 3pt; }
p { margin: 4pt 0; }
.subtitle { color: #486581; font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 8pt; }
.card { background: #f5f7fb; border-left: 4px solid #2f80a8; padding: 7pt 9pt; }
img { display: block; margin: 5pt auto; max-width: 100%; }
.columns { display: grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr; gap: 12pt; }
ul { margin: 4pt 0 0 16pt; padding: 0; }
li { margin: 2pt 0; }
footer { border-top: 1px solid #bcccdc; color: #627d98; font-size: 8.5pt; margin-top: 9pt; padding-top: 5pt; }
</style>
</head>
<body>
<h1>From demand question to forecast evidence</h1>
<div class="subtitle">A privacy-safe, player/coach delivery case study using synthetic monthly demand</div>
<div class="card">
<strong>The case.</strong> Build a repeatable forecasting flow without exposing operational data.
The public version preserves the delivery decisions that matter: preparation, an auditable
baseline, model comparison, validation, and a clear operating boundary.
</div>
<h2>Architecture</h2>
<img src="architecture.svg" alt="Demand forecasting delivery architecture">
<div class="columns">
<div>
<h2>Modeling choices</h2>
<ul>
<li>Monthly demand by synthetic SKU and region.</li>
<li>Baseline: previous eight months, excluding one minimum and one maximum.</li>
<li>One gradient-boosting model with lag and calendar features.</li>
<li>Rolling-origin validation for a 12-month horizon.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h2>Delivery choices</h2>
<ul>
<li>Start with a baseline stakeholders can audit.</li>
<li>Add complexity only when validation earns it.</li>
<li>Keep triggering manual while the workflow is proved.</li>
<li>Leave a clean seam for future orchestration.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<h2>Evidence</h2>
<p>The notebook computes validation metrics and produces comparison charts. This handout makes no numeric business claims because the data is synthetic.</p>
<footer>Public-safe artifact: no company rows, identifiers, credentials, private URLs, or copied business values.</footer>
</body>
</html>