930534dde2
Synthetic monthly SKU/region demand notebook comparing a trimmed-mean baseline against gradient boosting, with a gated TimesFM build-vs-buy comparison. Includes rolling-origin validation, executive narrative, architecture diagram, one-page PDF, and LinkedIn draft. No company data, credentials, or private implementation details. Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>
56 lines
2.5 KiB
HTML
56 lines
2.5 KiB
HTML
<!doctype html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<title>Demand Forecasting Case Study</title>
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<style>
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@page { size: A4; margin: 14mm; }
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body { color: #102a43; font: 10.5pt Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.35; margin: 0; }
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h1 { color: #0b4f71; font-size: 24pt; margin: 0 0 4pt; }
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h2 { color: #0b4f71; font-size: 13pt; margin: 10pt 0 3pt; }
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p { margin: 4pt 0; }
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.subtitle { color: #486581; font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 8pt; }
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.card { background: #f5f7fb; border-left: 4px solid #2f80a8; padding: 7pt 9pt; }
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img { display: block; margin: 5pt auto; max-width: 100%; }
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.columns { display: grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr; gap: 12pt; }
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ul { margin: 4pt 0 0 16pt; padding: 0; }
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li { margin: 2pt 0; }
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footer { border-top: 1px solid #bcccdc; color: #627d98; font-size: 8.5pt; margin-top: 9pt; padding-top: 5pt; }
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<h1>From demand question to forecast evidence</h1>
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<div class="subtitle">A privacy-safe, player/coach delivery case study using synthetic monthly demand</div>
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<div class="card">
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<strong>The case.</strong> Build a repeatable forecasting flow without exposing operational data.
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The public version preserves the delivery decisions that matter: preparation, an auditable
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baseline, model comparison, validation, and a clear operating boundary.
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</div>
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<h2>Architecture</h2>
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<img src="architecture.svg" alt="Demand forecasting delivery architecture">
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<div class="columns">
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<div>
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<h2>Modeling choices</h2>
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<ul>
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<li>Monthly demand by synthetic SKU and region.</li>
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<li>Baseline: previous eight months, excluding one minimum and one maximum.</li>
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<li>One gradient-boosting model with lag and calendar features.</li>
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<li>Rolling-origin validation for a 12-month horizon.</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h2>Delivery choices</h2>
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<ul>
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<li>Start with a baseline stakeholders can audit.</li>
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<li>Add complexity only when validation earns it.</li>
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<li>Keep triggering manual while the workflow is proved.</li>
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<li>Leave a clean seam for future orchestration.</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2>Evidence</h2>
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<p>The notebook computes validation metrics and produces comparison charts. This handout makes no numeric business claims because the data is synthetic.</p>
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<footer>Public-safe artifact: no company rows, identifiers, credentials, private URLs, or copied business values.</footer>
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</body>
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</html>
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